From Venezuela to Wall Street: What’s at Risk in 2026?

If the early days of this year are any indication, the volatility that defined 2025 is not behind us. In fact, 2026 is shaping up to be another rollercoaster year, marked by headline-grabbing political drama and an economy that continues to show surprising resilience in the face of it.

Recent events in Venezuela are a reminder of how geopolitics and markets remain tightly linked. Washington’s gamble, detaining President Maduro and applying intense economic pressure to force regime change, comes with a wide range of possible outcomes. A democratic transition, an entrenched status quo, or worsening instability that fuels civil unrest and refugee flows are all plausible paths.

From an investment standpoint, Venezuela’s relevance lies primarily in energy markets. Oil production has fallen to roughly 900,000 barrels per day, less than half its level a decade ago. Years of deterioration mean any meaningful increase in output would take time and require security, stability, and clear rules, conditions that are currently lacking. While China remains the dominant buyer of Venezuelan oil, shifts in trade flows could create opportunities closer to home. The situation underscores the strategic importance of secure supply chains and market access for Canadian energy producers in an increasingly fragmented global system.

Zooming out, Venezuela is just one piece of a much larger puzzle. We live in a world with no shortage of information, yet no shortage of conflicting signals either. For every data point that supports optimism, another flashes warning signs. In this environment, successful investing is less about reacting to individual headlines and more about understanding the deeper forces reshaping the global economy.

Those forces are significant. Fiscal policy has overtaken monetary policy as the primary economic lever. The real economy, resources, infrastructure, and industrial capacity, is reasserting itself. Global market leadership is broadening beyond the United States. Currencies increasingly reflect national strategy. Even traditional safe havens are evolving. And while artificial intelligence has developed unevenly, it is beginning to translate into tangible productivity gains.

Trade policy will remain front and centre. Legal challenges to tariffs, the upcoming renegotiation of the USMCA, and the 2026 U.S. midterm elections all add layers of uncertainty. Yet despite these headwinds, the U.S. economy has proven more resilient than many expected. Growth has been solid, spending remains healthy, and while the labour market has softened, inflation and domestic demand continue to hold up.

For investors, the message is clear: volatility is part of the landscape, but so is resilience. Staying disciplined, diversified, and focused on long-term fundamentals remains the best way to navigate the road ahead.