Looking Back; Looking Forward

For Canadian baseball fans, the autumn offered both unity and nostalgia. Three decades after Joe Carter’s iconic home run, many hoped for a repeat of that 1993 magic, but we’ll have to wait a little longer. Still, it’s worth reflecting on how much the world has changed since then. In some ways, it’s a “Back to the Future” moment: what if we could travel back 30 years and shape what was to come.

For many, it’s hard to imagine life without a smartphone or internet access. Yet in 1993, the digital age was just beginning. The “World Wide Web” was unknown to most, with only 3 percent of the population ever online. Devices like the PalmPilot and software such as Windows 95 (without an internet browser!) were years away from release.¹ Just months later, in 1994, a young entrepreneur, Jeff Bezos, left his stable job to start Cadabra, an online bookstore run from his garage—a venture that would eventually become Amazon. Could anyone have imagined its trajectory then? In hindsight, it may seem obvious. At the time? Not at all.

The economic backdrop of that era carries echoes of today. In 1993, U.S. economic growth was steady and inflation relatively contained. Canada, however, faced steeper challenges: unemployment rose above 10 percent, and the Bank of Canada cut rates to stimulate activity. The Wall Street Journal derisively called our dollar the “northern peso,” and branded Canada an “honorary member of the Third World.”²

Fast-forward to today, and despite another strong year for equity markets in 2025, familiar challenges persist: lagging productivity, ongoing trade tensions and sluggish growth. While markets have advanced—in part, driven by a bifurcated “K-shaped” economy in which higherincome households supported overall activity—questions remain about what lies ahead. Yet history reminds us that progress is rarely linear. Markets and economies move in cycles, shaped by volatility and surprises; meaningful progress is often measured over decades, not years.

History also shows how unexpected shifts can be transformational. Canada’s remarkable fiscal turnaround that began in 1995 bears repeating: Under Prime Minister Jean Chrétien, debt shrank from 68 percent of GDP in 1995/96 to 29 percent by 2008/09, with 11 straight years of budget surpluses. Our fiscal standing in the G7 climbed from second worst to first, ushering in what was known as a “payoff decade” of investment, job creation and growth.²

Notably, after Carter’s home run in 1993, the S&P/TSX Composite Index opened at 4,155.7—a time marked by considerable economic uncertainty. In 2025, it surpassed 30,000. While few would have had the foresight to join Bezos in his garage, an investor who placed $200,000 in the market back then would see it grow to over $1.4 million today, without reinvested dividends. It’s a reminder that broad opportunities often exist alongside bold ideas.

Indeed, we don’t need a time machine to make sound choices. As in the past, future success is likely to favour those who recognize the opportunities, stay disciplined and continue to participate. While no one can predict what the next 30 years will bring, the only way to miss out on the progress is to stay on the sidelines. Here’s to a new year ahead filled with resilience, participation, prosperity—and the next 33 years to come!

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^{1. https://fastcompany.com/3053055/1995-the-year-everything-changed; 2. https://financialpost.com/uncategorized/lessonsfrom-canadas-basket-case-moment}

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