In a world flooded with headlines about conflict, it may be easy to lose sight of how far we’ve come. It’s worth a reminder: we are living through an extraordinary chapter in history. Of all the progress over the past 10,000 years in raising living standards, half has occurred since 1990. As The Economist recently put it, “Of all the golden ages, the greatest is here and now.”¹

Much of today’s prosperity is rooted in the post-WWII global order, with decades of expanding trade and cooperation lifting economies around the world. Respected investor Howard Marks recently noted: “Globalization has contributed to a rising economic tide that has lifted all boats.”²

It is therefore not surprising that the U.S. administration’s April “Liberation Day” caught much of the world off guard. The breadth and global scope of the introduced tariffs challenged long-standing norms in international trade relations. As the situation continues to quickly evolve—with legal challenges underway at the time of writing—observers remain divided on the potential consequences. Some foresee heightened recession risks, while others believe evolving policy responses could help avert a significant slowdown. Regardless of the outcome, these developments have introduced a notable degree of uncertainty.

What’s more certain is that changes in U.S. trade policy have accelerated a broader shift away from globalization toward a more multipolar world, where nations increasingly prioritize self- sufficiency and national security. This may also be undermining the long-standing role of the U.S. as the dominant superpower. During April’s volatility, a sharp selloff in U.S. Treasurys raised concerns, particularly as China—holding roughly one-sixth of foreign-owned U.S. Treasurys—has been increasing its gold reserves. At the same time, demand for the U.S. dollar, once the world’s default safe haven, has remained muted, raising questions about waning confidence in U.S. leadership. As one analyst put it: “You can’t antagonize and influence at the same time.”

Indeed, the pace and tone of recent policy shifts have felt rapid, volatile and often confrontational—prompting some to compare the new U.S. approach to the tech-world mantra: “Move fast and break things.” Complicating the situation, we are living in a time when technology increasingly influences our perceptions—delivering news in real-time and amplifying the sense that change is urgent. Yet, many of these policies are still evolving, and their true impact remains uncertain. Market reactions, meanwhile, have been swift and exaggerated. The sharp selloff in April, followed by a strong rebound in May, serves as a reminder of how quickly investor sentiment can shift. As investors, this doesn’t mean we should become complacent about how rapidly change can occur—but it does underscore how volatility can distort our sense of urgency.

Looking ahead, we should expect continued shifts in policies, as well as new—and likely unexpected—developments from south of the border. In an era where headlines can move markets in minutes, disciplined decision-making can play an essential role in investing. Equally important, patience, perspective and participation remain cornerstones of longer-term success—without losing sight that we continue to live through one of the most prosperous periods in human history.

^{1. https://www.economist.com/culture/2025/05/01/how-golden-ages-really-start-and-end; 2. https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/nobody-knows-yet-again}

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